Weekly Economic Calendar

March 10-14, 2008

                                                                                                            Consensus       Prior

Monday, 3/10

            January Wholesale Inventories                              MoM   +0.5%             +1.1%

                        The wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio remains low at 1.1

Tuesday, 3/11

            January Trade Balance                                                       -$59.5B         -$58.8B

                        Expected to widen due to higher prices, not volumes

Exports have been growing more rapidly than imports for over a year

Import prices rose +1.7% MoM in January, with oil prices up +5.5% MoM

Export prices rose more slowly at +1.2% MoM in January, and Boeing exports were light

Wednesday, 3/12

            February Federal Government Budget                              -$150B            -$120B

Thursday, 3/13

            Initial Jobless Claims                                                          355k                351k

                        Continuing Claims                                                                          2.83M

February Import Price Index                                   MoM   +0.8%             +1.7%

                                                                                                YoY                           +13.7%

                        Another new record high expected for the annual growth rate toward 14%

                        Oil prices rose +2.5% in February

                        Non-petroleum prices were up +3.6% YoY in January

            February Retail Sales                                              MoM   +0.2%             +0.3%

                        Ex-Autos                                                        MoM   +0.2%             +0.3%

                        Auto sales rose modestly in February while gasoline prices eased slightly

                        Weekly ICSC chain store sales rose +.2% in February

                        Housing related items remain a drag

Consumer confidence remains weak, and jobs are being lost, weighing on growth potential

           

            January Business Inventories                                MoM   +0.4%             +0.6%

                        Manufacturing inventories rose +1.3% MoM

                        Wholesale and retail inventories expected to grow more slowly

Friday, 3/14

            February Consumer Price Index                            MoM   +0.3%             +0.4%

                                                                                                YoY     +4.2%             +4.3%

                        Core CPI (Ex-Food and Energy)                 MoM   +0.2%             +0.3%

                                                                                                YoY     +2.4%             +2.5%

All measures of consumer inflation expected to ease slightly in February for first time in many months

Headline inflation remains elevated – has only been above 4% YoY in 9 months of last 17 years

Food costs continue to rise, but seasonal adjustment factors may subdue gasoline price increase

Service prices are tending to rise faster than goods prices

OER and tenant rent expected to remain elevated at around +.3% MoM

                        Hotel and apparel prices expected to moderate

                        Used car prices have been very weak, falling over 1% MoM past 4 months

            Preliminary March Univ. of Michigan Confidence         70.4                 70.8

                        Further erosion expected, especially for future expectations

                        Approaching levels last seen in 1991 recession

                        Job losses will weigh heavy, as will increased discussion of recession

Gasoline prices are trending higher again

Equity and housing markets have been falling