Weekly Economic Calendar

March 3-7, 2008

                                                                                                            Consensus       Prior

Monday, 3/3

            February ISM Manufacturing                                            48                    50.7

                        Prices Paid                                                                 73                    76

Regional surveys weakened significantly which should push national ISM back below 50 to lowest level in over 5 years

            January Construction Spending                            MoM   -0.7%              -1.1%

                        Homebuilding continues to decline

Non-residential growth slowing, and no longer able to offset declines in residential

            February Total Vehicle Sales                                             15.5M             15.2M

                        Domestic Manufacturers Only                               11.9M             11.7M

                        January’s drop was the largest in 2 years

Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks on “The Benefits of a Systematic Approach to Monetary Policy”

Fed Governor Kroszner speaks on “Major Challenges and Opportunities Facing the U.S. and Global Economy and Financial Markets”

Tuesday, 3/4

            No Data

            Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on ?

           

            Fed Governor Mishkin speaks on ?

            Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on Balancing Inflation and Growth

Wednesday, 3/5

            February ADP Employment Changes                                18k                  126k

                        Excludes government job growth

            Final 4^th Quarter Non-Farm Productivity                         +1.8%             +1.8%

A small revision lower in non-farm business output raises risk of slightly lower productivity

            Final 4^th Quarter Unit Labor Costs                                                +2.1%             +2.1%

                        A decline in productivity increases chance of a higher ULC

            January Factory Orders                                                      -2.5%              +2.3%

                        Durable goods orders fell -5.3% on fewer aircraft orders

February Non-Manufacturing ISM                                   47.5                 44.6

Dropped a steep -8.6 points in January, and expected to remain in contractionary territory

            Regional surveys show continued weakness in February

            Construction falls under this category

            Suggests very weak GDP growth

Fed Beige Book

            Includes data through February 25^th

            Cleveland Fed President Pianalto speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy

Thursday, 3/6

            Initial Jobless Claims                                                          360k                373k

                        Continuing                                                                2.82M             2.81M

                        Initial claims near a two year high

Four week moving average of initial claims at 360.5k

            January Pending Home Sales                                MoM   -1%                 -1.5%

Last month, pending and existing home sales were both down around        -24% YoY

            Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks on ?

            Fed’s Consumer Advisory Council meets to discuss Mortgage Lending Issues

Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks on Risk Management in Financial Services

St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks on ?

Friday, 3/7

            February Change Non-Farm Payrolls                   MoM   +25k               -17K

                        Change Manufacturing Jobs                                  -25k                -28k

                        Ratio of jobs hard to get versus plentiful most pessimistic since 2005

                        ISM survey employment numbers have been weak

Industries likely to show job losses include construction, manufacturing, retail and finance

Government likely to important contributor toward modest net job growth as private sector payrolls may decline again

            February Unemployment Rate                                           5%                  4.9%

                        Jobless claims have been trending higher

                        For first time since 2005, continuing claims have topped 2.8M

            February Average Hourly Earnings                       MoM   +0.3%             +0.2%

                                                                                                YoY     +3.6%             +3.7%

Annual gain likely to fall to smallest increase in two years (+3.6% YoY) as labor market weakens

With headline inflation rising faster than earnings, citizens feeling a double pinch

            February Average Weekly Hours Worked                                    33.7                 33.7

            January Consumer Credit                                                  $7B                 $4.5B

                        Tighter credit standards and a slower economy reducing credit growth

                        2007 average increase was $11B a month

            Kansas City Fed President Hoenig speaks on ?

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on “Stylized Facts of Globalization and World Inflation”

San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks on “Globalization and the Determinants of Domestic Inflation”

Fed Governor Mishkin speaks on Advances in Monetary Policy

Fed Vice Chairman Kohn speaks on “Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy”