The Challenger survey indicates that fewer jobs were cut in February of 2008 versus February of 2007, with job cuts declining by -14% versus a year earlier. But, looking at the first two months of this year versus last year, there has been a slight increase. The majority of the announced layoffs last month were in government and non-profit agencies, followed by retail jobs. Both are considered leading indicators of a general economic decline as tax receipts shrink and consumers cut back on spending. Job growth is apparent in the energy sector. Overall, the report suggests the labor market remains weak.
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ADP survey indicates private sector jobs fell by -23k in February. The market had been looking for an addition of +18k in new private sector jobs. This figure does not include government jobs. To compare to the Friday payroll data, you should mentally add 26k growth for government jobs (average growth for last three months of 2007). This would indicate that in February the U.S. economy essentially created no new jobs. It should be noted that the ADP survey has not been an especially good predictor of non-farm employment growth. But, it is clear that the trend is weakening.
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