Weekly Economic Calendar December 3 - 7, 2007

Monday, 12/3
November Manufacturing ISM
Consensus - Prior
50.5 - 50.9

Prices Paid
Consensus - Prior
66 - 63

October industrial production figures showed broad-based manufacturing declines raising odds for a sub 50 manufacturing ISM reading
Regional surveys mixed, with Empire survey booming
Weak dollar supporting export demand
October customer inventory index at highest level since 2001 recession
Auto manufacturers scheduled decreased output for November

Total Vehicle Sales
Consensus - Prior
16M - 16.1M

Domestic Manufactures Only
Consensus - Prior
12.2M - 12.2M

Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks on Subprime Mortgages

Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks on Housing Market

San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Tuesday, 12/4
No Major Data

Wednesday, 12/5
November ADP Employment Change
Consensus - Prior
53K - 106k

Remember to add 20-30k for government jobs

Final 3rd Quarter Non-Farm Productivity
Consensus - Prior
5.6% - 4.9%

Non-farm output revised up to 5.7% from 4.3% in 3rd qtr GDP

Final 3rd Quarter Unit Labor Costs
Consensus - Prior
-1.0% - -0.2%
Labor income revised lower in recent GDP report
Second quarter ULC expected to be revised lower to -0.8%
Likely to be the first two consecutive quarterly declines in over 5 years
Lower ULC and higher productivity should reduce inflation concerns

October Factory Orders
Consensus - Prior
Unch - +0.2%
Durable goods orders fell -.4% in October
Higher oil prices likely to boost non-durable orders

November Non-Manufacturing ISM
Consensus - Prior
55 - 55.8
For last decade, non-manufacturing ISM has tended to run 4.7 points higher than manufacturing ISM
Recent sectors showing weakness have been construction, financial services, and retail trade, which are all likely to remain weak

Thursday, 12/6
Initial Jobless Claims
Consensus - Prior
335k - 352

Continuing Claims
Consensus - Prior
2585k - 2665k

Initial claims spiked to second highest level in 2007 last week
Poor seasonals may have been partially responsible for 22k jump
4-week average has been trending higher for two months, now at 335k

Friday, 12/7
November Change in Non-Farm Payrolls
Consensus - Prior
70k - 166k

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
Consensus - Prior
-13k - -21k

Initial jobless claims have been rising over past two months
Jobs plentiful index has been weakening
Lowest monthly increase over past three years was 69k in June

November Unemployment Rate
Consensus - Prior
4.8% - 4.7%

Unemployment rate was last at 4.8% in July ‘06
Cycle low was 4.4% March
Continuing claims popped above 2.6M in November

November Average Hourly Earnings
Consensus - Prior
MoM 0.3% - 0.2%
YoY 3.8% - 3.8%

Maintaining steady growth

November Average Weekly Hours Worked
Consensus - Prior
33.8 - 33.8

December Preliminary U of Mich Consumer Confidence
Consensus - Prior
75 - 76.1
Fell 4.8 points in November to a two year low
Inflation expectations rose to 3.4% for 1y and 2.9% for 5y
Other sentiment surveys have also been weakening

October Consumer Credit
Consensus - Prior
$5B - $3.7B
September’s increase was the smallest in five months
Over the past year, the average monthly increase has been $10B



Note: Consensus data from Bloomberg.