ADP Shocks to the Upside

The ADP estimate of non-farm payroll growth was almost four times larger than expected at 189k (consensus 50k). When 20k is added for government job growth, this pushes the estimate for Friday's non-farm payroll growth to over 200k. It has been over a year since monthly non-farm payroll growth has grown by over 200k. The Bloomberg consensus for non-farm payroll growth in November is currently 70k. Ten year interest rates are 5bp higher following the announcement. The ADP estimate has had some major misses in the past, but refinements this year have been improving its accuracy.