Economic Calendar - December 10-14, 2007

Monday, 12/10
October Pending Home Sales
Consensus - Prior
MoM -1% - +0.2%
Declining home prices are causing people to delay purchases, but lower mortgage rates may provide some support

Tuesday, 12/11
October Wholesale Inventories
Consensus - Prior
MoM +0.5% - +0.8%
Higher oil prices likely to provide a boost to inventory valuations

FOMC Meeting
Expected to lower target rate from 4.5% to 4.25%
Discount window rate expected to drop 50bp, reducing penalty to 25bp

Wednesday, 12/12
October Trade Balance
Consensus - Prior
-$57.3B - -$56.5B
Higher oil prices and a weaker dollar helping widen trade gap
Ignoring prices and focusing on volume, the gap should narrow

November Import Price Index
Consensus - Prior
MoM +2% - +1.8%
YoY +11% - +9.6%
Import prices rising twice as fast as export prices
Oil prices rose 11% MoM in November
The last time import prices rose over 10% YoY was in 1987

November Monthly Federal Budget
Consensus - Prior
-$80B - -$73B

Thursday, 12/13
Initial Jobless Claims
Consensus - Prior
332k - 338k
Continuing Claims
Consensus - Prior
2590k - 2599k
Four week moving average of initial claims at 340k, a one year high

November Producer Price Index
Consensus - Prior
MoM +1.5% - +0.1%
YoY +6.2% - +6.1%
Core PPI (Excluding Food and Energy)
Consensus - Prior
MoM +0.2% - unch
YoY +1.8% - +2.5%
Monthly increase in headline PPI expected to rebound to highest monthly increase of past year
Annual headline inflation at highest level since 17 year peak of 6.9% reached in 2005
Gasoline prices in the PPI may surge 25% MoM due to seasonal factor boost (twice size of nominal price gain)
Finished food prices expected to rise +.4% MoM
Potential for a rebound in light truck prices

November Advance Retail Sales
Consensus - Prior
+0.5% - +0.2%
Less Autos
Consensus - Prior
+0.6% - +0.2%
Gas station sales should rise 4% based on gas price rise
Ex-auto and gasoline sales expected to remain respectable at +.3%MoM
Surveys indicate consumers expect to reduce spending this holiday season
Data from Thanksgiving weekend looked OK with Wal-Mart rising

October Business Inventories
Consensus - Prior
+0.3% - +0.4%
Manufacturing inventories rose +.1%

Friday, 12/14
November Consumer Price Index
Consensus - Prior
MoM +0.6% - +0.3%
YoY +4.1% - +3.5%
Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy)
Consensus - Prior
MoM +0.2% - +0.2%
YoY +2.3% - +2.2%
Higher gasoline prices pushing up headline inflation
Tenant rent expected to subside to +.3% from +.45% spike last month
Increased foreign tourism supporting higher hotel prices
Medical and education costs remain elevated

November Industrial Production
Consensus - Prior
+0.1% - -0.5%
Modest recovery anticipated as manufacturing data remains mixed to weaker

November Capacity Utilization
Consensus - Prior
81.7% - 81.7%