The OFHEO index of "purchase only" home prices fell -1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007 versus the third quarter, a substantial acceleration in decline from the -.3% quarterly decline between the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2007. For the year as a whole, purchase only prices fell -.3% YoY. This represents the first national OFHEO home price decline since its inception in 1991.
Home price weakness was broadbased, every state but Maine saw purchase prices drop in the fourth quarter. For all of 2007, 16 states plus DC showed annual declines in purchase transactions, with the most weakness occurring in regions that saw the largest run-ups earlier this decade. 99 of 291 MSA's experienced annual home price declines in 2007, with cities in California and Florida representing the largest drops. The Pacific region saw a -4.5% quarterly house price decline.
Beginning this month, OFHEO is going to begin reporting monthly price changes. Purchase prices fell -.2% nationally in December, according to OFHEO. Their data shows home prices as having declined steadily for the past six months, and shows a cumulative decline from their April 2007 peak in home prices of -2.4%.
If refinancing data is included, which depends more on home appraisal data, the all-transactions index showed a modest +.1% quarterly price gain in the 4th qtr of 2007, and an annual increase of +.8% YoY for all of 2007.
If the nominal price changes are adjusted for inflation, OFHEO data indicates real home prices fell -4.6% YoY from the 4th qtr of 2006 through the 4th qtr of 2007.
OFHEO data only represents prime, conforming mortgage loans, so it misses data from sub-prime and jumbo loans, and is not considered the best measure for the entire housing market. The data comes from Fannie and Freddie and represents 34 million repeat transactions.
No comments:
Post a Comment