U.S. Consumer Confidence plunged in February, dropping to 75 from a revised lower 87.3 in January. The market had been looking for a drop to 82. The index hasn't been this low since early 2003, when the US began the Iraq conflict. If the early 2003 data is ignored, the index is at a 15 year low. Both the current and future expectations indexes weakened materially. The present situation index fell from 114.3 to 100.6 in February versus January. Future expectations eased to 57.9 vs 69.3 the prior month, and are now at a 17 year low set in January 1991, during the last major housing downturn.
The difference between jobs plentiful vs easy to get fell into negative territory for the first time in over six months. The number seeing jobs as not plentiful rose to 55.6, while those seeing jobs plentiful fell to 20.6. As recently as last July the jobs plentiful figure was 50% higher at 30. Views of business conditions also worsened.
Looking at expectations for conditions in six months, there were large increases for worse business conditions (21.4 vs 16.3) and fewer jobs (27.9 vs 21.9) versus January. The percentage of respondents expecting income to decline rose a more modest +.3 MoM.
Buying intentions over the next six months surprisingly showed upticks in home purchases and major appliances, though they were slight. Those expecting to take a vacation fell.
Inflation expectations over the next year held steady at 5.3% YoY.
The survey is based on 5,000 households, and all calls were completed by February 19th.
This data indicates that growth probably continued to slow in early 2008 and recession risks are rising.
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