Weekly Economic Calendar

January 28 –February 1, 2008

                                                                                                                     Consensus       Prior

Monday, 1/28

            December New Home Sales                                                            645k                647k

Following last months -9% MoM plummet, December expected to ease by only -.3% MoM

Single-family building permits fell -10% in December

Inventories surged to 9.3 months in November, back near 25 year high

Median sales prices expected to continue sinking

Tuesday, 1/29

            December Durable Goods Orders                                      +1.8%             -0.1%

                        Ex-Transportation                                                    -0.1%              -0.8%

                        Expected to jump higher due to a surge in aircraft orders (287 vs 177)

                        Slight rebound expected in machinery and tech orders

                        Overall trend is lower, as shown by negative growth ex-transportation

Manufacturing ISM slipped below 50 in December, also a sign of slowing growth

            November Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Change  YoY -7.1%        -6.1%

October’s monthly decline of -1.4% MoM was the largest monthly decline in at least 20 years

            January Consumer Confidence                                         87                    88.6

                        Expected to sink to lowest level since 2003

                        Current conditions index has fallen steadily for past five months

                        Surprisingly, Univ of Michigan future expectations rose slightly in Jan

Employment factors will be key, especially with unemployment popping up +.3%, to 5%, in December

            FOMC Meeting Begins

Wednesday, 1/30

            ADP Employment Change                                                  40k                  40k

                        Assume additional 20-25k for government job growth

                        In line with consensus payroll growth expectations of +55k

            4^th Qtr Real GDP (Inflation Adjusted)       Annualized    +1.2%             +4.9%

                        First estimate, not all data available yet

                        Sharp slowdown expected versus the third quarter

                        Residential construction and inventory growth remain a drag on growth

                        Government spending and exports provide support

            4^th Qtr Personal Consumption                   Annualized    +2.8%             +2.8%

                        Expected to show solid growth

            4^th Qtr GDP Price Index                              Annualized    +2.6%             +1%

                        Inflation expected to have accelerated in the fourth quarter

Higher import prices show up as a negative rather than a positive

                        Construction prices falling (Lumber down 30% since last summer)

            4^th Qtr Core PCE                                          Annualized    +2.4%             +2%

                        For all of 2007, expected to rise at least 2% YoY

            FOMC Meeting Ends          

                        Fed Target Rate                                                        3.25%             3.5%

                        Still good chance of a 50bp cut

New voting members being rotated in for the year at this meeting are generally viewed as being more hawkish

Thursday, 1/31

            December Personal Income                                                            +0.4%             +0.4%

                        Aggregate hours worked softened, but average hourly earnings rose +.4%

            December Personal Spending                                            +0.1%             +1.1%

                        Sharp slowdown expected as retail sales were soft

                        Gasoline prices declined and vehicle sales were flat

            December PCE Deflator                                          YoY     +3.5%             +3.6%

                        Core PCE                                                       MoM   +0.2%             +0.2%

                                                                                                YoY     +2.2%             +2.2%

                        Inflation measures expected to hold steady in December

            Initial Jobless Claims                                                          320k                301k

                        Continuing Claims                                                                          2672k

                        Four week average of initial claims is 314.75k

Not clear if decline to 301k area in last two weeks is real or due to faulty seasonals

            4^th Qtr Employment Cost Index                                          +0.8%             +0.8%

                        Continued steady growth at trend pace of last six quarters expected

                        Wage and salary expected to rise an unchanged +.8% MoM

                        Benefits growth expected to accelerate slightly to +.9% MoM

            January Chicago Purchasing Manager Index                  53                    56.4

                        Correlation with national ISM has weakened over past two years

                        Chicago strength expected to weaken toward national decline

            December Help Wanted Index                                            20                    21

Friday, 2/1

            January Change in Non-Farm Payrolls                            55k                  18k

                        Change Manufacturing                                           -20k                -31k

18k December job growth was smallest monthly increase in over 4 years Last month’s new job creation was actually negative in private sector

                        Declines in initial jobless claims suggest few layoffs in January

Retail data may be more impacted than normal by seasonals as fewer than normal holiday jobs were created last year

Manufacturing, finance, and information (writers strike) job growth is expected to be soft

Recent strength has been in government, healthcare, and professional services employment

Note -Includes annual benchmark revisions.  Tax data indicates payroll growth will be revised down by about 300k.  Census data will also update population controls for the household survey which impacts the unemployment rate.  Updated data goes through March 2007.  Birth/death estimates also are updated.

            January Unemployment Rate                                             5%                  5%

Very unusual jump of +.3% MoM last month leaves room for some give back this month.  May see rate slide back down to 4.9%

Unemployed receiving jobless benefits has risen recently to 2%, vs 1.9% over previous two years, supporting higher unemployment rate continuing

            January Average Hourly Earnings                         MoM   +0.3%             +0.4%

                        Expected to ease back from above trend growth of prior two months

                        Annual growth slowed to +3.7% YoY in 2007 from +4.3% YoY in 2006

                       

            January Average Workweek Hours                                   33.8                 33.8

            January Manufacturing ISM                                              47.3                 47.7

                        Prices Paid                                                                 68                    68

Last month’s reading fell over 3 points, from 50.8 to 47.7, indicating the economy has begun contracting as credit conditions tighten

Regional surveys weakening, with Philly Fed collapsing 19 points in January

                        Lower oil prices may help prices paid to ease

                        Index needs to fall to 42 or 43 to indicate recession

ISM adjusting weights of various subcomponents, but general indicator shouldn’t change much

            January Final U of Michigan Confidence                         79                    80.5

                        Preliminary January reading rebounded a surprisingly strong 5 points

Stock market swoon this week, and increased calls of a recession, likely reduced sentiment

Inflation expectations expected to hold steady

            December Construction Spending                                     -0.5%              +0.1%

                        Private residential construction continues to slow

Non-residential and public construction no longer offsetting all of the decline in homebuilding

            January Total Vehicle Sales                                                16M                16.3M

                        Domestic Manufacturers                                         12.3M             12.5M