Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 1k to 301k. Consensus had been looking for an increase to 320k following last week's revised drop to 302k. The four week moving average fell to 314.75k, a three month low. Most people had thought that last week's surprise drop was due to poor adjustment for seasonal factors associated with the holidays. Now some economists are speculating that companies are reluctant to lay off skilled workers even as the economy slows. 36 states reported an increase in new claims benefits.
Continuing claims also unexpectedly declined, pushing the unemployment rate for people eligible for benefits back down to 2% from 2.1% last week.
Many dealers are revising their estimate higher for January payroll growth. Current consensus calls for 53k new jobs being announced on February 2nd, after only 18k new jobs in December. After today's data, this consensus is likely to be increased by around 15k.
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