The ADP estimate shows only 38k new jobs in August (consensus 80k), the smallest estimated increase in four years. It is important to remember that the ADP report doesn't include government jobs. To make the ADP estimate comparable to the non-farm employment growth figure, add 15-20k government jobs to the ADP figure. The current consensus for Friday's growth in non-farm payrolls is 108k.
The ADP survey showed a decrease of 49k jobs in manufacturing and construction industries while service industries remain the job powerhouse adding 87k workers in August. Goods producing jobs have fallen for nine straight months. Larger employers were shedding jobs last month (-32k) while smaller employers added 70k jobs.
The ADP survey covers 383k businesses and about 23 million workers.
August follows a weak reading for July, of a revised lower 41k new jobs, indicating a deceleration in job creation as the housing and lending issues impact consumers and businesses.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
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