July Import Prices Indicate Accelerating Inflation

High oil prices helped push import prices up +1.5% MoM (consensus +1%), the largest monthly increase since March.

Oil prices rose 7% MoM in July, and +4.1% YoY. If petroleum prices are excluded, import prices rose a much more modest +.2% MoM. Ex-petroleum prices have risen steadily for the last five months.

Food and beverage prices have also been rising, up +1.6% MoM in July and +9.8% YoY (the largest annual increase in 12 years). All categories show increases MoM and YoY in July, indicating that price rises are pervasive. This is partially due to the declining value of the dollar, which has been testing 12 year lows.

Over the last year, import prices have risen +2.8% YoY. This is a sharp increase from the +2% YoY revised increase reported last month.

Costs for Chinese imports have accelerated to a record high of +.4% MoM (records only go back to 2003), and are up +2.3% YoY. Conversely, Japan continues to export deflation, with prices down -.2% MoM and -.7% YoY.