Economic Calendar - August 13 – 17, 2007

Consensus Prior
Monday, 8/13
July Advance Retail Sales +.2% -.9%
Ex-Autos +.4% -.4%
Small rebound expected following steep decline in June
Furniture and restaurant sales expected to grow
Auto and apparel sales expected to be weak
Gasoline prices fell, which will reduce service station sales
Volume expected to be unchanged

June Business Inventories +.4% +.5%
Manufacturing rose +.3% and wholesale inventories rose +.5%

Tuesday, 8/14
June Trade Balance -$61B -$60B
Higher petroleum prices should push up imports (oil prices up 5% in June)
Global growth at record levels supports moderate export expansion

July Producer Price Index MoM +.1% -.2%
YoY +3.5% +3.3%
PPI Ex-Food and Energy MoM +.2% +.3%
YoY +2.5% +1.8%
Food prices expected to rise faster than energy prices
Seasonal factors, due to new model year, make auto prices volatile in July

Wednesday, 8/15
July Consumer Price Index MoM +.1% +.2%
YoY +2.5% +2.7%
CPI Ex-Food and Energy MoM +.2% +.2%
YoY +2.2% +2.2%
Larger incentives should reduce new auto prices
Pull-back expected after 6.1% rise in hotel prices over last three months
Rental vacancy rate has eased slightly to 9.5% from 10.1%
Tenant rent and OER expected to rise +.2% MoM
Retail gasoline prices fell 3% in July
Core inflation growing at trend +2.2% YoY, but headline should ease from +2.7% YoY of past two months to +2.5% YoY

August Empire Manufacturing 18 26.5
Expected to weaken following softer data from other regional surveys and national ISM last month
One of the stronger regions with new orders rising and strong shipments

June Total Net TIC Flows $105.9B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows $62.5B $126.1B
Net long-term TIC flows hit a record high in May, expected to ease back in June
Central bank demand for Treasuries appears to be cooling – averaged only $600mln purchases per month YTD
Saw good demand for Agencies, corporate bonds and equities last month

July Industrial Production +.3% +.5%
Hours worked were flat
Manufacturing ISM weakened, but vehicle production rose sharply
Cooler than normal July reduced utility demand

July Capacity Utilization 81.8% 81.7%
Sitting at high end of range for this year, and above long-term ave of 81%

August NAHB Housing Market Index 23 24
Sitting at low for this cycle, after falling 15 points since February
Record low is 20 set in 1991

Thursday, 8/16
Initial Jobless Claims 313k 316k
Have risen for last two weeks

July Housing Starts 1400k 1467k
Expected to fall -4.5% to the cycle low of January
Permits now running below starts

July Building Permits 1410k 1413k
Building permits hit a new cycle low in June, and they aren’t expected to recover soon as homebuilder sentiment remains weak
Multifamily permits at risk following surprise 13% gain last month
June single-family permits hit lowest level in a decade

August Philadelphia Fed 8 9.2
Most manufacturers upbeat in region, but capital goods producers indicated slower activity in the Beige book

Friday, 8/17
August Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence 88 90.4
First look at consumer sentiment since stock market decline and credit crunch
Unemployment rate increased in July
Lower gasoline prices should cushion some of the drop
Five year inflation expectations rose to 3.1% last month, the high end of recent range
St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks on “US Export Opportunities”