Economic Calendar - June 11 – 15, 2007

Consensus Prior
Monday, 6/11
No Data

Cleveland Fed President Pianalto speaks in Ireland on Global Interdependence

Chicago Fed President Moskow speaks on “Transitions: The State of the Automotive Industry”

Tuesday, 6/12
May Monthly Federal Budget Statement -$63.5B -$42.9B
Congressional Budget Office estimates May budget deficit was -$71B

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speak on American Competitiveness

Chicago Fed President Moskow speaks on “Using Payment Innovations to Improve Transportation Networks”

Greenspan speaks at Commercial Mortgage Securities Conference in NY

Wednesday, 6/13
May Import Price Index MoM +.2% +1.3%
YoY +1.9%
Import price gains expected to slow from sharp gains of over 1% MoM the past two months
Consumer goods import prices have been rising steadily for a year, as the dollar weakens and inflation picks up, after deflating in early 2006

May Advance Retail Sales MoM +.7% -.2%
Less Autos MoM +.7% unch
Should rebound from April’s decline
Gas station sales likely grew 4% on higher prices, and will make headline figure look stronger than it really is. Ex-gas total expected to rise +.5%
Retail sales excluding autos, gasoline and building materials expected to rise a respectable +.6% MoM. Accounts for around 60% of total sales.
Auto sales expected to be flat
General merchandise such as furniture and apparel expected to recover only a quarter of last month’s large decline on weather factors
Real consumer spending slowing to 2% from 4%+ in 1st quarter



April Business Inventories MoM +.3% -.1%
Manufacturing inventories rose +.5% and wholesale inventories rose +.3%
Retail inventories probably rose +.3%
Inventory to sales ratios falling back toward historic lows

Beige Book
No major changes expected

NY Fed President Geithner Speaks on Asia, the World Economy, and the International Financial System in Singapore

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on Importance of Higher Education

Thursday, 6/14
May Producer Price Index MoM +.5% +.7%
YoY +3.5% +3.2%
May PPI Ex-Food and Energy MoM +.2% unch
YoY +1.5% +1.5%
Rising gasoline and food prices continuing to push up headline PPI
Headline PPI expected to rise to highest level since last summer YoY
Farmers have seen higher prices for six of last seven months
Core PPI should see first MoM gain in three months, after being unch prior two months
Core PPI expected to hold steady at +1.5% YoY, down from 2% in Dec
Falling passenger car prices have been depressing core PPI
Excluding autos and tobacco, core PPI is up 2% from a year ago
Pipeline pressures rising, as April core intermediate PPI rose most in 11 months
Core crude and intermediate prices expected to each rise +.5% MoM

Initial Jobless Claims 312k 309k
Continuing Jobless Claims 2535k
4 week average has risen to 307k

Fed has hearings on Mortgage Regulations in DC with Fed Governor Kroszner

U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks on National Security in NY

Friday, 6/15
May Consumer Price Index MoM +.6% +.4%
YoY +2.6% +2.6%
May CPI Ex-Food and Energy MoM +.2% +.2%
YoY +2.3% +2.3%
An 11% MoM increase in gasoline prices should boost headline inflation by +.6% MoM, matching March’s high print for the past year
YoY headline inflation expected to hold steady at +2.6%, but risk is for an increase to +2.7%
Core CPI expected to grow +.2% MoM, the recent trend rate.
Core CPI expected to hold steady at +2.3% YoY, down from +3% YoY last fall
Relevance of rental vacancy rate under debate, but it has risen to 10.1%
Tenant rent expected to grow +.25% and OER increase +.2%
Medical and education costs expected to continue rising faster than general inflation rate at +.4% and +.5% respectively.

June Empire Manufacturing 10.5 8
Manufacturing activity seems to be recovering nationally
Durable goods orders have moved higher
NY’s emphasis on computers and electronic production should benefit

1st Quarter Current Account Balance -$202.8B -$195.8B
Trade deficit only grew by $2B between 4th and 1st quarters
Current account deficit expected to edge up to 6% of GDP

April Total Net TIC Flows $45B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows $71.5B $67.6B
Net long-term TIC flows averaged around $75b a month in 1st quarter
Most dealers looking for total flows to rise to $50b in April
No clear seasonal trends in historic data

May Industrial Production MoM +.2% +.7%
Industrial production growth is expected to slow to +.2% MoM as lower electricity demand causes utility output to fall in May
Strength comes from growth in manufacturing output
Aggregate manufacturing hours fell -.3% MoM in May even though ISM has risen strongly over past two months
Manufacturing production has been rising for last three months
Construction demand should give back surprising gains of last two months

May Capacity Utilization 81.5% 81.6%
Unexpectedly bounced back to the top of its range for the past six months in April
Peaked last summer at 82.4%
Long-run average 81%

June Preliminary Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence 88 88.3
Confidence softened late in May
Higher gasoline prices are starting to have an impact
Inflation expectations likely to rise, after being unchanged last month
Rising interest rates offsetting benefits of new highs in equities

Fed Chairman Bernanke and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speak on “Credit Channel of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century”

San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks on Free Trade in a Global Economy


**Sometime during the week the MBA Delinquency Survey will be released.
Delinquencies are expected to rise, especially for sub-prime.