Weekly Economic Calendar

February 11 – 15, 2008

                                                                                                            Consensus       Prior

Monday, 2/11

            No Data

            St. Louis Fed President Poole gives his reflections on his time in office

Tuesday, 2/12

            No Data        

            San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks on the economy

Wednesday, 2/13

            January Advance Retail Sales                                             -0.2%              -0.4%

                        Less Autos                                                                 +0.2%             -0.4%

Auto sales dropped off a cliff in January, but non-auto sales should rebound back into slightly positive territory

                        Steady gasoline prices should have no impact

                        Expect rebound, from -.5% drop in December, for general merchandise

Sales of discretionary goods (excluding food, gas and healthcare) rose less than 2% last year - a very moderate pace

            December Business Inventories                                         +0.4%             +0.4%

                        Manufacturing inventories rose +.8%

                        Wholesale inventories grew +1.1%, 4x more than expected

Thursday, 2/14

            December Trade Balance                                                    -$61.4B       -$63.1B

Expected to narrow as after last month’s surprisingly large increase

                        Import volumes of autos and consumer goods expected to decline

                        Exports have risen for nine months straight

Export prices rose probably rose faster than import prices in Dec, mainly due to a pause in gasoline price increases

            Initial Jobless Claims                                                          345k                356k

                        Continuing Claims                                                                          2785k

Initial claims were higher than expected last week with no seasonal distortions

Four week average of initial claims rose to 335k

Continuing claims hit a two year high last week, and are expected to continue rising

Fed Chairman Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Paulson, and SEC Chairman Cox testify to Senate Banking Committee

Chicago Fed President Evans speaks on U.S. economic outlook

Friday, 2/15

            January Import Price Index                                    MoM   +0.5%             Unch

                                                                                                YoY     +12.8%       +10.9%

                        Only marginal increases in crude oil prices in January

                        Annual gain expected to set a new record high going back to 1983

                        Excluding petroleum, import prices rising around +3% YoY

            February Empire Manufacturing                                       7.3                   9

                        Expected to continue weakening

                        New orders and employment were soft last month

            December Net TIC Flows                                                    $76B             $149.9B

                        Net Long-Term Only Flows                                                $70B               $90.9B

                        US residents were net sellers of foreign securities in November

                        Foreign demand has been choppy since credit crunch began in August

            January Industrial Production                                           +0.1%             Unch

Capacity Utilization                                                 81.3%             81.4%

Aggregate manufacturing hours were  unchanged in January – durable manufacturing hours increased +.2% but non-durables declined by -.8%

Especial weakness seen in textiles, printing, apparel and plastics

Industrial production peaked in July 2007 and has plateaued since then

            Preliminary February U of Mich Confidence                   77                    78.4

Recession fears are rising, pushing down sentiment

Weekly ABC/Washington Post survey has swiftly weakened over past two weeks to new cycle low and worst level since 1993

U of Mich bottomed at 63.9 in October 1990 and 51.7 in 1980

Since 2000, it has only fallen as low as 74.2, in 2005 after Katrina

Fed Governor Mishkin speaks on the Fed’s tools for responding to financial disruptions