Monday, March 10, 2008

Wholesale Sales Rising Faster Than Inventories, as Food and Energy Prices Continue to Rise, Pushing I/S Ratio to Record Low

Wholesale inventories on Friday rose +.8% MoM (consensus +.5%), but as sales rose an even stronger +2.7% MoM (the largest monthly gain in 4 years), causing the inventory to sales figure to drop to a record low of 1.07 months.  Wholesalers account for about a quarter of all business stockpiles.  Rising stockpiles were apparent at machinery, metal, clothing and farm product distributors.  Auto stockpiles at wholesalers fell a large -.7% MoM.  The slowdown in auto sales has businesses being very cautious on growth as the economy slows.
 
Durable goods inventories rose +.6% MoM and non-durable stockpiles rose +1.2% MoM.  Non-durables include energy and food products.  Part of the reason for the stronger rise in non-durable stockpiles was due to higher prices.
 
Over the past year, inventories have risen +6.4% YoY, with a substantial +15% YoY rise in non-durables.  Groceries are up +7.5% YoY.  Sales have risen a much larger +15% YoY, with ex-petroleum sales rising +10% YoY.    Machinery and grocery sales have both risen 10-12% YoY, while petroleum sales have risen +64% YoY.  Most of the energy rise has been due to higher prices rather than volumes.

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