February 18 – 22, 2008
Consensus Prior
Monday, 2/18
President’s Day Holiday – Markets
Closed
Tuesday, 2/19
February NAHB Housing Market Index 19 19
Rose
last month from record low of 18
Minneapolis Fed President Stern speaks on
U.S. Economy
Wednesday, 2/20
January Consumer Price Index MoM +0.3% +0.3%
YoY +4.2% +4.1%
CPI Ex-Food and Energy MoM +0.2% +0.2%
YoY +2.4% +2.4%
Food and gasoline both expected to
rise around +0.3% MoM
Service
prices (rents, medical) rising faster than goods prices (autos)
Rental indicators remain elevated
– OER +.3% MoM for last two months, tenant rent rose +.4% in December
Apparel
prices may drop due to aggressive clearance sales
Seasonals often cause more aberrations
than usual in January – new year pricing for many products and services
Headline
inflation has only risen above 4% YoY 8
times in last 17 years
Core inflation expected to hold steady
at +2.4% YoY, after rising for four straight months
January Housing Starts 1010k 1006k
A
decline in single-family expected to offset a rise in multi-family starts
Western
U.S. has seen especially steep declines recently
January Building Permits 1050k 1068k
Single-family starts have been
running below permit levels indicating a further slowdown in construction
Multi-family starts in December
had 2nd largest decline ever (-40.3% MoM) suggesting a rebound is
likely this month
FOMC Minutes Released (January 29-30
Meeting)
St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks
on Inflation
Thursday, 2/21
Initial Jobless Claims
345k 348k
Continuing Claims
Initial
claims fell for last two weeks, following spike to 378k
Four
week average rose to 347k
Continuing
claims remain near a two year high
February Philadelphia Fed -10 -20.9
National
manufacturing ISM rebounded
January Leading Indicators -0.1% -0.2%
Expected to decline for fourth
straight month – last happened in 1990-91 recession
Six month trend likely to fall to
lowest level since 2001 recession
Friday, 2/22
No Data
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