Thursday, February 7, 2008

Jobless Claims Data Worse Than Expected

First time jobless claims remain high at 356k (consensus 342k). Last week, initial jobless claims rose to a 27 month high of 375k, which was revised higher to 378k this week. The four week moving average of initial claims rose 8.5k to 335k. Over the past year, new jobless claims have averaged 324k a week. The recent high in initial claims was 345k in December. Continuing claims shot higher this week, rising to 2785k (consensus 2715k). This is the highest level for continuing claims since 2005. But to put it in perspective, continuing claims are still significantly below the five year peak of 3770k in May 2003. Net, this week's data reinforces that labor market conditions have begun a modest deterioration.

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