Weekly Economic Calendar November 12 - 16, 2007

Monday, 11/12
No Data

Tuesday, 11/13
October Monthly Budget Statement Consensus -$57.1B Prior -$49.3B
Expenses expected to grow 3% faster than tax receipts

September Pending Home Sales Consensus MoM -2.5% Prior -6.5%
Downturn likely to continue slowing
Sales fell 10.7% in July and 6.5% in August

Fed Governor Kroszner speaks at S&P Bank Conference

Wednesday, 11/14
October Producer Price Index
Consensus Prior
MoM 0.3% 1.1%
YoY 6.4% 4.4%
October Core PPI (Ex-Food and Energy)
Consensus Prior
MoM 0.2% 0.1%
YoY 2.6% 2%
Energy and vehicle prices had sharp falls a year ago in October causing the year-over-year changes to pop higher this month
New model vehicles introduced in October tend to lead to larger than normal ‘misses’ each year in October consensus estimates
Food prices expected to rise +.7% MoM again

October Advance Retail Sales Consensus 0.2% Prior 0.6%
Less Autos Consensus 0.3% Prior 0.4%
Retail sales expected to soften due to warmer than normal weather, especially for apparel, delaying winter purchases
Vehicle sales declined 1% MoM
Chain stores reported disappointing sales
Retail gas prices steady

September Business Inventories Consensus 0.3% Prior 0.1%

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on the US Economic Outlook in Australia

Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on “Monetary Arrangements in the 21st Century”

Thursday, 11/15
Initial Jobless Claims Consensus 320K Prior 317K
Continuing Claims Consensus 2565k Prior 2579k
Saw a large decline of 13k last month, but 4 week average rose to 330k

October Consumer Price Index
Consensus Prior
MoM .3% 0.1%
YoY 3.5% 2.8%
October Core CPI (Ex-Food and Energy)
Consensus Prior
MoM 0.2% 0.2%
YoY 2.2% 2.1%
Gasoline prices were flat on the month, but seasonal factors expect a decline, so it may be a small net positive MoM
Total CPI will see a large increase YoY from gasoline prices
Food should also push up the headline figure
Rental inflation may remain elevated for OER and tenant rent at +.3%
In contrast, core CPI expected to remain steady at recent growth rates

November Empire Manufacturing Consensus 20 Prior 28.8
Has been the strongest of the regional indexes
New orders, shipments and employment were all strong in Oct at over 20
More emphasis on high tech than other areas

November Philadelphia Fed Consensus 5 Prior 6.8
Continued weakening expected

Chicago Fed President Evans speaks on “Strategies for Improving Economic Mobility of Workers”

Kansas City Fed President Hoenig speaks on US Economic Outlook

Friday, 11/16
September Total Net TIC Flows Prior -$163B
Net Long-Term (Durations over 1 year) Consensus $80B Prior -$69.3B
Expected to rebound into positive territory after plummeting in Aug
Equity markets recovered and Fed cut interest rate
Short-term flows may remain low if demand for bank deposits remains weak among investors concerned about further credit downgrades

October Industrial Production Consensus 0.1% Prior 0.1%
Manufacturing hours worked fell -.4% during October as manu ISM fell
Higher utility demand may offset lower growth in other areas
Over the past year, the annual growth pace has slowed below the long-term trend, but has not dropped into recessionary territory
Risk to lower than consensus figure

October Capacity Utilization Consensus 82% Prior 82.1%
Steady level expected, with a risk toward lower usage

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks on Southeast Economic Outlook