Weekly Economic Calendar October 15-19, 2007

Monday, 10/15
October Empire Manufacturing
Consensus---Prior
13.1---14.7
Last month the index plunged from 25.1 due to large declines in new orders (-8.6 pts) and shipments (-23.7)

Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Economic Outlook with Q&A

Tuesday, 10/16
August Total Net TIC Flows
Consensus---Prior
$80B---$103.8B
Long-Term Only
Consensus---Prior
$60B---$19.2B
Rising sub-prime credit concerns in July caused foreign demand for U.S. long-term debt and equities to decline. Treasury bills and other short-term instruments saw increased demand on flight to quality buying.
Similar flows expected in August as problems intensified

September Industrial Production
Consensus---Prior
+0.1% --- +0.2%
September Capacity Utilization
Consensus---Prior
82.1%---82.2%
Lower auto output should restrain growth
Utility demand should decline from August, but remain elevated due to warmer than normal temperatures increasing air-conditioning usage
Manufacturing hours worked were unchanged in September

October NAHB Homebuilders Index
Consensus---Prior
19---20

Wednesday, 10/17
September Consumer Price Index
Consensus---Prior
MoM +0.2%--- -0.1%
Consensus---Prior
YoY +2.8%--- +2%
Sept. Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy)
Consensus---Prior
MoM +0.2%--- +0.2%
Consensus---Prior
YoY +2.1%--- +2.1%
Higher gasoline costs should push up the headline figure
Food gains expected to be muted
Core inflation expected to remain at 18 month low of 2.1%
Tobacco likely to spike higher following cigarette manufactures hiked prices
Increased sales promotions for clothing may restrain apparel gains
OER and tenant rent both expected to remain around +.2% MoM
Risk of higher medical and education costs

September Housing Starts
Consensus---Prior
1288k---1331k
September Building Permits
Consensus---Prior
1293k---1322k
Continued erosion expected to result in another new low for this cycle
Starts estimated to decline -3.2% MoM, with permits down -2.2% MoM
New home sales at 7 year low as supply closes in on record high
Increasing number of delayed or abandoned construction projects reported
Ratio of single family homes authorized, but not yet started, to permits at 16 year high

Fed Beige Book Released
Includes data through October 8th

Fed NY EVP and Manager of Open Market Account Bill Dudley speaks on “May You Live in Interesting Times” with Q&A

Kansas City Fed President Hoenig speaks on economy and monetary policy w/Q&A


Thursday, 10/18
Initial Jobless Claims
Consensus---Prior
312k---308k
September Leading Indicators
Consensus---Prior
+0.3%--- -0.6%
Rebound due to lower jobless claims, higher stock prices, and rising non-defense capital goods orders

October Philadelphia Fed
Consensus---Prior
7---10.9
Rebounded last month from unchanged the prior month
New orders and shipments rose strongly in September

Cleveland Fed President Pianalto speaks. Topic to be determined w/Q&A

Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks on “Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy”

Friday, 10/19
No Data

Fed Chairman Bernanke and St. Louis Fed President Poole speak on “Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty” with Q&A

Fed Governor Mishkin speaks on Core and Headline Inflation with Q&A