Economic Calendar - October 1 - 5, 2007

Monday, 10/1
September Manufacturing ISM
Consensus Prior
52.5 52.9
Regional surveys mixed, but show continued growth
New orders likely to see increasing attention as a leading indicator
Export demand remains strong

Tuesday, 10/2
August Pending Home Sales
Consensus Prior
MoM -2% -12.2%
July’s collapse was the largest since records began in 2001
The West led the decline

September Vehicle Sales
Consensus Prior
15.9M 16.3M

Domestic
Consensus Prior
12.3M 12.7M
August sales boosted by one-time rental fleet deliveries
Pace falling back toward lows of last decade

Dallas Fed President Fisher on Technical Evolution and the Knowledge Economy

Wednesday, 10/3
September ADP Employment Change
Consensus Prior
55k 38k

September ISM Non-Manufacturing
Consensus Prior
55 55.8
Likely to decline after remaining unchanged last month
Employment fell below 50 in August for first time in 3 years
New orders popped higher in August

Thursday, 10/4
Initial Jobless Claims
Consensus Prior
310k 298k
Continuing Jobless Claims
Prior
2551k
Jobless claims fell to lowest since April last week
Four week average 311.5k

August Factory Orders
Consensus Prior
MoM -2.4% +3.7%
August durable goods orders tumbled -4.9%
Non-durable goods expected to show modest growth

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks to Charlotte Economics Club

Fed Governor Mishkin speaks on “Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?” which he presented on Sept 21 w/ Q&A


Friday, 10/5
September Change in Non-Farm Payrolls
Consensus Prior
100k -4k
Manufacturing Change
Consensus Prior
-13k -46k
Expected to bounce back after going negative for first time in four years last month
State data showed stronger employment gains in August
Private payrolls will get most scrutiny as cleanest data
Government payrolls likely to show gain of 40k as teachers’ jobs reappear
Past year shows steady erosion of manufacturing and construction jobs
Early indicator temporary help jobs now under pressure

*Annual benchmark revisions for April ’06 thru March ’07 expected to show a downward revision after huge 752k gain last year. Based on examining state tax records.

September Unemployment Rate
Consensus Prior
4.7% 4.6%
Likely to rise if labor force grows but participation rate holds steady

September Average Hourly Earnings
Consensus Prior
MoM +.3 +.3
Likely to remain at 3.9% YoY after peaking at 4.3% in December
Labor market remains tight for skilled workers

September Average Weekly Hours
Consensus Prior
33.8 33.8

August Consumer Credit
Consensus Prior
$9.6B $7.5B
Higher auto sales likely to push up non-revolving debt by $5B

Fed Vice Chairman Kohn speak on the Economic Outlook. No Q&A.

Fed Governor Warsh speaks on Financail Market Developments w/Q&A