Weekly Economic Calendar September 17 – 21, 2007

Monday, 9/17
September Empire Manufacturing Consensus: 18.5 Prior: 25.1
The NY index has remained very resilient, holding above 25 for last three months, but is expected to soften this month

Tuesday, 9/18
August Producer Price Index
MoM Consensus: -.2% Prior: +.6%
YoY Consensus: +3.2% Prior: +4%
PPI Ex-Food and Energy
MoM Consensus: +.1% Prior: +.1%
YoY Consensus: +2.2% Prior: +2.3%
Substantial decline anticipated for headline inflation both MoM and YoY due to lower energy prices (gasoline fell 6% in August)
Food prices paid to farmers fell slightly last month
Core inflation expected to ease marginally on lower vehicle costs
Recent gains have been muted for both consumer and capital goods
Core crude and intermediate goods prices expected to decline YoY

July Total Net TIC Flows Consensus: $60B Prior: $58.8B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows Consensus:$100B Prior: $120.9B
May and June both saw record demand of over $120B in long-term flows
Central bank Treasury buying rebounded in June, totaling more than prior 5months combined ($32B vs $3B)

September National Homebuilders Index Consensus: 20 Prior: 22
Expected to drop again to a new low for this cycle
In early 90s downturn, index remained below 25 for three months
September is likely to be the 3rd month below 25 for this cycle

FOMC Meeting
Fed Target Rate Consensus: 5% Prior: 5.25%
Most uncertainty in a while - Range from unchanged to down 50 bp

Wednesday, 9/19
August Consumer Price Index
MoM Consensus: Unch Prior: +.1%
YoY Consensus: +2.2% Prior: +2.4%
CPI Ex-Food and Energy
MoM Consensus: +.2% Prior: +.2%
YoY Consensus: +2.2% Prior: +2.2%
Core and headline inflation rates expected to converge at 2.2% YoY as total inflation growth subsides
Steeply lower gasoline prices should more than offset food price gains
Low headline reading not expected to persist as gasoline prices head higher
Hotel price gains expected to give back some of the 7% gain in past 5m
OER and tenant rent both expected to grow +.2%
Autos and furniture are in YoY price declines

August Housing Starts Consensus: 1350k Prior: 1381k
2.2% drop expected
Building permits hit cycle low in July of 1389k
Homebuilders remain pessimistic
Demand was soft even before recent tightening and turmoil

August Building Permits Consensus: 1340k Prior: 1373k
2.4% decline anticipated
Fell to a ten year low last month

Thursday, 9/20
Initial Jobless Claims Prior: 319k
Continuing Jobless Claims Prior: 2585k

August Leading Indicators Consensus: -0.1% Prior: +.4%

September Philadelphia Fed Consensus: +2.8 Prior: Unch
Weakest regional survey last month

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies to U.S. House on the Mortgage Market and the Government’s Plans to Ease Foreclosures. Treasury Secretary Paulson, HUD Secretary Jackson, and Dan Mudd are also speaking.

Friday, 9/21
No Data

Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks