Economic Calendar - September 24 – 28, 2007

Monday, 9/24
No Data

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on Benefits of Higher Education

Chicago Fed President Evans speaks on the Role of R&D in Agriculture

Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Impact of Education on U.S. Economy

Tuesday, 9/25
July S&P/ Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index
Consensus YoY -4% Prior -3.5%
Ten city index expected to fall -4.6% YoY, largest decline since 1991
Lehman looking for cumulative national decline of 15% by YE2008

September Consumer Confidence
Consensus 104.5 Prior 105
Expectations expected to continue dropping, following sharp decline in August
Negative employment growth in August will weigh heavy at 40% of index

September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Consensus 4 Prior 7

August Existing Home Sales
Consensus 5.49M Prior 5.75M
Expected to re-accelerate lower, falling -4.5% MoM
Pending home sales fell -12.2% in July
This would be the sixth month in a row of declines
UofM survey shows 40% think now is a bad time to buy a home

Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks on “Invention, Productivity and the Economy”

Wednesday, 9/26
August Durable Goods Orders
Consensus MoM -3% Prior +5.9%
Ex-transportation
Consensus MoM -.7% Prior +3.7%
Expected to give back some of the surge higher in July
Boeing had 74 fewer new plane orders in August than July
Weakness in other areas expected to be broad-based, with construction equipment demand especially weak

St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks to small business owners

Thursday, 9/27
Final 2nd Quarter GDP
Consensus Annualized +3.9% Prior +4%
Downward revisions to spending, construction, inventories, exports likely to cause small revision lower
Expected to be viewed as old news
Next four quarters, at least, expected to show weaker growth

Final 2nd Quarter Personal Consumption
Consensus Annualized +1.4% Prior +1.4%

Final 2nd Quarter GDP Price Index
Consensus Annualized +2.7% Prior +2.7%

Final 2nd Quarter Core PCE
Consensus QoQ +1.3% Prior +1.3%

Initial Jobless Claims
Consensus 320k Prior 311k

Continuing Claims
Consensus 2560k Prior 2544k

August New Home Sales
Consensus 830k Prior 870k
Further deterioration expected, falling -4.6% MoM, after surprise increase of +2.8% in July
Homebuilder sentiment at record low keeping them as motivated sellers
Expect larger price declines than for existing home sales
The South has shown signs of stabilizing, but the Midwest and West remain weak
Recall that cancellations aren’t included, so data likely overstates sales and understates inventory

August Help Wanted Index
Consensus 24 Prior 25

Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks on behavioral economics and economic policy

Chicago Fed President Evans speaks on Globalization and Systemic Risk

Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on “Domestic Prices in an Integrated World Economy”

Fed Governor Mishkin speaks on “Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance and Monetary Policy”

Friday, 9/28
August Personal Income
Consensus +.4% Prior +.5%
Hours worked held constant, and hourly wages grew +.3%

August Personal Spending
Consensus +.4% Prior +.4%
Lower gas prices helped spur improved vehicle sales in August
Non-auto consumption expected to be relatively weak
July figure likely to be revised higher on stronger retail sales data
August PCE Deflator
Consensus YoY Prior +2.1%

August Core PCE
Consensus MoM +0.2% Prior +0.1%
Consensus YoY +1.8% Prior +1.9%
Annual change expected to soften modestly to +1.8% YoY
Core inflation has remained tame this summer, as goods and services prices, including rents, have been decelerating

September Chicago Purchasing Manager
Consensus 53.1 Prior 53.8
Expected to hold steady, near middle of range for this year, indicating continued moderate growth

August Construction Spending
Consensus MoM -.2% Prior -.4%
Looks like non-residential growth is no longer fully offsetting residential weakness
Housing construction expected to decline -.7% MoM
Public spending expected to grow 1%, but only accounts for 20% of total

Final September U of Mich Consumer Confidence
Consensus 84 Prior 83.8
Fed easing and stock market rally may give small lift
Half of respondents expect bad financial times in year ahead

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks on economic outlook

San Francisco Fed President Yellen and Fed Governor Mishkin speak at Fed conference on behavioral economics and economic policy

St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks on “Thinking Like a Central Banker”