Weekly Economic Calendar August 27 – 31, 2007

Monday, 8/27
July Existing Home Sales Consensus: 5.70M Prior: 5.75M
Decline expected to slow by -.9% MoM in July, vs -3.8% MoM in June, to another new cycle low
Over the past year, sales have fallen 11%, with the West seeing the biggest decline at -19% YoY
June pending home sales rose 5%, and usually lead existing home sales by 1-2 months, but there is reason to suspect higher fall-out than normal due to tightening credit conditions

Tuesday, 8/28
June S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20 City) Prior :-2.8%

2nd Qtr S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (National) Prior: -1.4%

August Consumer Confidence Consensus: 105 Prior: 112.6
Financial market volatility expected to cause index to plunge
Other surveys indicate rapid deterioration in both current and future expectations
Cut-off date for responses was Aug 21
Expected to fall near a two year low

August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Prior: 4

Minutes of August 7 FOMC Meeting Released
Superseded by more recent announcement, but discussions will indicate initial reaction to earlier stage of financial market upsets of recent weeks

Wednesday, 8/29
No Data

Thursday, 8/30
2nd Qtr Preliminary GDP Annualized Consensus: 4% Prior: +3.4%
GDP Growth expected to be revised higher from original estimate
This would improve first half growth into Fed’s forecast range
Adjustment higher expected from higher exports and less imports
Consumer spending and non-residential construction investment should also be positive contributors to the upward revision
Housing will remain a drag
Personal income revisions will also be released for the 1st qtr, with implications for unit labor cost adjustments
Will also see first estimates for 2nd qtr corporate profits

2nd Qtr Preliminary Personal Consumption Prior: +1.3%

2nd Qtr GDP Price Index Annualized Consensus: +2.7% Prior: +2.7%

2nd Qtr Core PCE QoQ Consensus: +1.4% Prior: +1.4%

Initial Jobless Claims Consensus: 320k Prior: 322k
Four week moving average jumps to 318k from 306k prior week

Continuing Jobless Claims Consensus: 2575k Prior: 2572k
Currently at highest level since April

July Help Wanted Consensus: 25 Prior: 26

2nd Qtr OFHEO House Price Index Consensus: +0.3% Prior: +0.5%
NAR median existing home prices fell -1.1% annualized in 2nd qtr
Case/Shiller index also indicating falling home prices
Risk OFHEO index may show first quarterly decline since 1994

Friday, 8/31
July Personal Income Consensus: 0.3% Prior: +0.4%
Payroll hourly earnings rose +.3% MoM but aggregate hours worked fell -.1% MoM

July Personal Spending Consensus: +0.4% Prior: +0.1%
Growth expected from non-auto consumption, as auto sales have been weak
Service demand expected to remain at trend pace

July PCE Deflator YoY Prior: +2.3%
Expected to decline to +2.1% YoY

July Core PCE MoM Consensus: +.2% Prior: +.1%
YoY Consensus: +2% Prior: +1.9%
Expected to accelerate slightly, both monthly and annually, in line with July core CPI growth (+.2% MoM, +2.2% YoY)

August Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Consensus: 52.8 Prior: 53.4
Has been extremely variable this year
Machine tools and equipment parts have been relatively strong
Construction machinery demand has been soft
Foreign demand for heavy trucks has offset weakening US demand

July Factory Orders Consensus: +0.7% Prior: +0.6%
Consensus likely to be revised up following strong durable goods orders (+5.9% MoM in July)
Non-durable goods orders rose +.7% Mom

August Final Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Consensus:82.7 Prior: 83.3
Preliminary figure saw a huge drop from 90.4 in July
More recent ABC/Washington Post survey indicated a record decline
Inflation expectations softened earlier this month to +3.2% over next year and +2.9% average over the next five years

Fed Chairman Bernanke gives opening speech at annual Jackson Hole symposium. This year’s topic is “Housing and Monetary Policy”. No Q&A.