Economic Calendar
July 9-13, 2007
Consensus Prior
Monday, 7/9
May Consumer Credit $5.5B $2.6B
Consumer credit grew at a +4.7% annualized pace in the 1st quarter
April’s increase was below trend as credit card debt unexpectedly shrank
Tighter mortgage credit standards should increase credit card use in the future
Growth expected to be evenly split between revolving and non-revolving

Tuesday, 7/10
May Wholesale Inventories +.4% +.3%
Growth expected to remain near trend
Motor vehicle inventories have declined steadily this year
Inventory-to-sales ratio is at an historic low for wholesale inventories, suggesting demand to build inventories

Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Inflation with Q&A

Wednesday, 7/11
Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks on “Housing Prices and Monetary Policy” with Q&A

Thursday, 7/12
May Trade Balance -$60B -$58.5B
Expected to widen after contracting -1.9% in April on reduced imports
Imports expected to rebound mainly due to higher prices, especially for oil
Exports expected to continue to grow near 9% YoY as world economy remains robust
Food exports rose +12% in April and are expected to slow in May

Initial Jobless Claims 315k 318k
Continuing Claims 2520k 2569k

June Monthly Budget Statement $30B $20.5B
Deficit for first 8 months of fiscal year 2007 is -$148 billion
June will be a surplus month due to quarterly tax payments

Fed Governor Kroszner speaks on Basel II with Q&A

San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks at luncheon on U.S. Economy




Friday, 7/13
June Import Price Index MoM +.6% +.9%
YoY +1.1%
Petroleum price gains continue to push up headline inflation
Consumer goods import prices expected to rise +.2% MoM (+ 1.7% YoY)
Data is not seasonally adjusted

June Advance Retail Sales +.2% +1.4%
Less Autos +.2% +1.3%
May’s rise was the largest since January 2006, severe deceleration expected for June
Domestic auto sales fell to lowest level since Oct. 2005 (20% of index)
Stabilizing gas prices will keep service station sales from rising
Building materials have only fallen -1.7% YoY despite housing slump
Redbook retail sales fell -1% in June
Ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials expected to grow at +.5% trend

July Preliminary U of Michigan Confidence 86 85.3
Lower gasoline prices are expected to give a small boost

May Business Inventories +.3% +.4%
Expected to continue growing at trend
Vehicle inventories expected to decline
Manufacturing inventories rose +.3% MoM in May