Economic Calendar - July 30 – August 3, 2007

Consensus Prior
Monday, 7/30No Data

Tuesday, 7/31
June Personal Income +.5% +.4%
Hourly earnings and hours worked both rose

June Personal Spending +.2% +.5% Auto sales were weak

June PCE Deflator YoY 2.3% 2.3%
June Core PCE MoM +.2% +.1%
YoY +1.9% +1.9%
Slightly lower growth than CPI
Hotel price gains have less impact on this index

2nd Qtr Employment Cost Index +.9% +.8%
Wages and salaries expected to grow +.9%
Benefit costs likely to rise after decelerating last quarter
Strong equity market gains reduced pension plan contribution needs
Above trend medical cost gains decelerating
YoY growth expected to hold steady at 3.5%, with wages picking up and benefits costs slowing over the past year

May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Change 20 City -2.1%

July Chicago Purchasing Manager 58 60.2
Domestic demand has been weak
Auto demand has been weak

July Consumer Confidence 105 103.9
Slight improvement expected as most participation is early in month, when stocks were rising and gas prices easing

June Construction Spending +.3% +.9%
Residential construction expected to decline for 16th straight month
Non-residential and government demand continue to carry the load
Non-residential growth exceptionally strong in second quarter, but concerns credit tightening will squash future growth

Wednesday, 8/1
ADP Employment Change 100k 150k
Add 25k for government jobs

June Pending Home Sales -.3% -3.5%
Down 11% in last three months

July ISM Manufacturing 55.5 56
Prices Paid 66.5 68 ISM manufacturing reached a 14-month high in June
New orders hit a 16-month high in June
Deliveries have been increasing, suggesting fewer bottlenecks and less inflationary pressures
Regional indexes mixed in July

July Total Vehicles Sold 16M 15.6M
Domestic 12.3M 11.8M

Thursday, 8/2
Initial Jobless Claims 310k 301k
4 week average 308.5k

June Factory Orders +1% -.5%

Friday, 8/3
July Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 129k 132k
Manufacturing -15k -18k
Over the past three months, growth has averaged 148k per month
Jobless claims remain relatively low
76% of new jobs in 2007 focused on education, health services, food services, and government

July Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
Has ranged between 4.4 – 4.6% since last September
If labor force participation holds steady, unemployment rate may rise to 4.6%
Continuing claims have trended higher

July Average Hourly Earnings MoM +.3% +.3%
YoY +3.9% +3.9%
Peaked at 4.3% YoY last December

July Average Weekly Hours 33.9 33.9
Index of aggregate hours worked expected to rise +.1% MoM

July Non-Manufacturing ISM 59 60.7
Beige Book indicates strong demand for professional services
New orders slipped last month