Economic Calendar - June 25 – 29, 2007

Consensus Prior
Monday, 6/25
May Existing Home Sales 5.97M 5.99M
Expected to drop -.3% MoM in May, after falling -2.6% in April and -7.9% in March
Pending home sales declined -7.6% between February to April
Existing home sales are falling at around a -24% annualized pace
Existing home sales are based on actual contract signing, and lag initial agreement by 1-2 months. So, current existing home sales are based on
March purchases, when subprime credit tightening began to impact sales
Existing home supply reached a recent high of 8.4 months in April
Median sales prices fell -.8% YoY in April.

Tuesday, 6/26
April Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index YoY -2.2% -1.4%
Both the 10 and 20 city indexes are expected to decline for the 4th consecutive month
The 10 city survey is focused on more bubble areas and is falling faster, declining -1.9% YoY in March

June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8 -10

May New Home Sales 925k 981k
Expected to decline -5.7% MoM in May after jumping +16.2% in April
NAHB survey hitting new lows
Inventory remains excessive, but supply fell to 6.5 months in April, from 8.1 months in March, on surprise sales improvement last month, as median new home prices plummeted -10.9% YoY to induce demand
Tighter lending standards expected to continue depressing sales
Not clear how cancellations are currently impacting the data

June Consumer Confidence 105.5 108
Has been holding higher than other confidence surveys
More weighted towards employment, business conditions and income than other surveys
Expected to soften due to high gas prices, increasing number of “bad news”
headlines, and rising interest rates extending housing slump

Chicago Fed President Moskow receives a reward for “Exemplary Civic Involvement”. He will not speak on Monetary Policy or take questions.

Wednesday, 6/27
May Durable Goods MoM -1% +.8%
Ex-Transportation MoM +.2% +1.9%
Durable goods demand is expected to decline
After two months of strong transportation orders, Boeings’ aircraft orders slowed in May by over 25% MoM
Ex-transportation orders have rebounded strongly year-to-date, but may pause in May, before heading higher again based on stronger manufacturing ISM data
Machinery orders are expected to rebound +1.5%
Non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft has been steadily improving on a three month average annualized basis

Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks at Wall Street Journal Conference

FOMC 2-Day Meeting Begins

Thursday, 6/28

Initial Jobless Claims 310k 324k
Consensus looking for number to fall back to recent range, but risk is for a higher
number following last week’s jump

1st Qtr Final GDP Annualized +.8% +.6%
Expected to be revised higher due to a reduced drag from inventories and trade, as
trade deficit narrowed and inventory accumulation rose
2nd qtr GDP expectations running around 3.5 – 4%

1st Qtr Final Personal Consumption +4.4%
Some economists looking for a decline to 4.2%

1st Qtr Final GDP Price Index +4% +4%

1st Qtr Final Core PCE QoQ +2.2%

May Help Wanted Index 29 29

FOMC Meeting Concludes
Fed Funds expected to be left unchanged at 5.25%
Expect comments on economic growth reappearing
Continuing concerns about the housing market
Recognition of improvement in core inflation, but headline inflation remains elevated

Friday, 6/29
May Personal Income +.6% -.1%
Aggregate weekly payrolls rose +.8% in May suggesting rising income
Last month’s decline was tied to timing of bonus and option income
Real disposable personal income is expected to rise +.2% MoM
May Personal Spending +.7% +.5%
Expected to strengthen on higher gas prices and general retail sales
Auto sales have been soft, but other retail goods and services demand has been firm
Real consumer spending (after inflation) is expected to slow to +.1% MoM in May,
and around +2.25% annualized for the 2nd quarter.

May Savings Rate -1.6% -1.3%
Likely to become more negative as spending grows faster than income

May PCE Deflator (Headline Inflation) YoY +2.4% +2.2%

May Core PCE Deflator MoM +.1% +.1%
YoY +1.9% +2%
Risk is for core to rise +.2% MoM due to rounding
Moderation in owners’ equivalent rent increases helping contain core inflation
Annual rate expected to ease back below 2% upper Fed comfort band for the 1st
time in 3 years

June Chicago Purchasing Managers 57.5 61.7
Last month’s gain correctly indicated strengthening national manu ISM
Expect some giveback from last month’s booming growth, as the trend higher has
been choppy

May Construction Spending MoM +.1% +.1%
Private residential construction spending is expected to decline again, by 1% in May
Strength remains focused on non-residential demand, for offices and schools

Final June Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence 84.2 83.7
The preliminary reading dropped sharply by 4.6 points
Small rebound expected as gas prices stop rising
Inflation expectations are anticipated to hold steady at 3.5% for next year and 3%
for next five years