Economic Calendar - July 2 – 6, 2007

Consensus Prior
Monday, 7/2
June Manufacturing ISM 55 55
Prices Paid 69 71
May’s level highest in past year
New orders at 1.25 year high as inventory correction subsides
Regional reports have displayed strength (Empire, Philly, Richmond)
Durable goods orders were broadly weaker in May, falling -2.8% MoM

Tuesday, 7/3
May Pending Home Sales MoM +.6% -3.2%
Over the past two months, pending home sales have fallen -7.6%
Index at a four year low
Demand remains weak as interest rates rise, credit tightens, and home prices soften

May Factory Orders MoM -.8% +.3%
Expected to weaken less than durable goods

June Total Vehicle Sales 16.4M 16.2M
Domestic Vehicle Sales 12.4M 12.3M

Wednesday, 7/4
U.S. Markets Closed for Independence Day

Thursday, 7/5
June ADP Employment Change 103k 97k
Need to mentally add 15-20k government jobs to equal payrolls estimate

Initial Jobless Claims 315k 313k
Continuing Claims 2490k

June ISM Non-Manufacturing 57.7 59.7
Expected to ease back from May’s one year high
Real GDP has tended to grow around 3% when non-manu ISM at 57
Non-manufacturing ISM’s pricing index has correlated well with CPI

Friday, 7/6
June Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 120k 157k
Change Manufacturing Payrolls -13k -19k
Expected to soften below last month’s level and the 6m average of 148k
Though initial claims spiked the week of the survey, they have been relatively low, but up an average 9k versus May
Jobs plentiful survey at 2007 low, plus signs layoffs are rising
Growth should be dominated by service jobs again

June Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.5%
Labor market remains tight
Labor supply growing around 140k a month
Unemployment rate has ranged between 4.4-4.6% for last nine months

June Average Hourly Earnings MoM +.3% +.3%
YoY +3.8%
Year-over-year rate expected to slow to +3.7% - peaked at 4.3% in Dec
Index of aggregate hours worked expected to be unchanged

June Average Weekly Hours 33.9 33.9

San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks on “Capital Flows and Asset Prices: The International Dimension of Risk”