Economic Calendar - May 14 – 18, 2007

Monday, 5/14
No Data
Dallas Fed President Fisher on Importance of Service Sector

Tuesday, 5/15
April Consumer Price Index
MoM 0.50% 0.60% - YoY 2.60% 2.80%

Core CPI (Ex-Food and Energy)
MoM 0.20% 0.10% - YoY 2.40% 2.50%
Higher gasoline prices expected to push up consumer inflation
Core CPI at +2.4% YoY will be at an 11 month low
Tenant rent and OER both expected to rise +.3% MoM
Hotel prices were unusually weak last month which is unlikely to persist
Tuition costs continues to rise rapidly
Apparel and recreation costs likely to be subdued

May Empire Manufacturing
Consensus 8 Prior 3.8
ISM manufacturing rose in April

March Total Net TIC Flows Prior $94.5B
Net Long-Term TIC Flows $73.2B $58.1B
1Q07 inflows are likely to exceed 4Q06, but fall below longer-term trend

May NAHB Housing Market Index
Consensus 33 Prior 33
National Association of Homebuilders optimism has fallen over last few months on softer sales
Fed Chairman Bernanke and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speak at Atlanta Fed Conference entitled “Credit Derivatives: Where’s the Risk?”
Boston Fed President Mindhan and Governor Mishkin Moderate a Panel on Derivatives
Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks on International Capital Flows in Argentina
NY Fed President Geithner speaks at Atlanta Fed Conference in Sea Island, GA
Kansas City Fed President Hoenig Speaks on Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook

Wednesday, 5/16
April Housing Starts
Consensus 1480k Prior 1518k
Housing starts are expected to decline by 3.5% MoM
Inventories remain elevated
Likely to see payback from 45% growth surge last month in Midwest
All other regions were weaker in March

April Building Permits
Consensus 1525k Prior 1564k
Building permits are expected to fall 2.5% MoM

April Industrial Production
Consensus MoM 0.30% Prior -0.20%
Electricity output is expected to rebound after falling -5.4% in April
Manufacturing output likely to show very modest growth of +.1% MoM
Manufacturing workweek fell -.4%

April Capacity Utilization
Consensus 81.50% Prior 81.40%
Expected to hold steady at 81.5%
Reached 82.4% last summer, the highest level since 2000
Troughed at 73.6% at the end of 2001
Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Moderates Panel on “Credit Derivatives: Macro-Risk Issues” at Atlanta Fed’s Conference
Fed Vice-Chairman Kohn Speaks on Financial Stability and Policy Issues w/Q&A
Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks on “Globalization and Capital Markets: Implications for Inflation and the Yield Curve”
Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks on Globalization and the Economic Outlook

Thursday, 5/17
Initial Jobless Claims
Consensus 310k Prior 297k
Fell to second lowest level in a year last week at 297k (range 287-356k)
The 4 week moving average is 317k
The 52 week moving average is 319k

April Leading Indicators Consensus MoM 0% Prior 0.10%

May Philadelphia Fed
Consensus 3 Prior 0.2
Relatively strong relationship to ISM manufacturing
Survey has stabilized near zero for last three months

Greenspan Speaks at a Business Breakfast in Atlanta

Chicago Fed President Moskow Speaks at Chicago Fed Conference on “The Mixing of Banking and Commerce”
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks at Chicago Fed on “Subprime Mortgage Markets and Regulations”

Friday, 5/18
Preliminary May U. of Michigan Confidence
Consensus 86.5 Prior 87.1
Likely to soften slightly as gasoline and food prices continue to rise
Strengthening equities helping to offset weaker employment data
Inflation expectations rose to +3.3% for the next 12 months, and +3.1% over the next five years, in the April survey. Rising energy costs will sustain rising inflation concerns