Import prices rose more than expected in April, at +1.3% MoM (consensus +1%), but the excess gain was essentially offset by a revision lower in the prior month to +1.5% from +1.7% MoM. Again, higher petroleum prices were mainly to blame for the rise (+6.5% MoM). The annual change is running at +1.9% YoY in April.
Non-petroleum prices are up an even stronger +2.9% YoY (+.2% MoM). This is because food prices have risen +8.8% YoY(+1.4% MoM) while petroleum costs are actually down -1.8% YoY. Last month, non-petroleum industrial supplies and materials rose a strong +.9% MoM.
Capital goods prices fell for the third month in a row, declining -.4% MoM in April. Computers saw their largest monthly drop in prices since 1999.
Higher oil prices led to higher import costs from oil exporting countries like Canada(+1.4% MoM) and Mexico(+2.3% MoM) during the month. Import prices from the European Union and China each fell -.1% MoM, with Japanese import prices unchanged in April. On an annual basis, prices from Canada have risen 3.2% YoY and fallen -.4% YoY from China.
Export price gains have been trending lower over the past three months, from +.8% MoM in February to +.3% MoM in April. Over the past year, export prices have risen much faster than import prices at +4.9% YoY versus +1.9% YoY. The strength has been in agricultural and food export prices, which have risen around 20% YoY. In contrast, consumer goods export prices have only risen +2.6% YoY.
Rising import prices are likely to impact PPI more quickly than CPI.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
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