Friday, May 4, 2007

Economic Calendar - May 7 – 11, 2007

                                                                                     Consensus            Prior
Monday, 5/7
March Consumer Credit                                        $4B                $3B
Consumer credit growth has been moderate this year
Average growth over the past five years has been $8.7B per month
Most new growth in credit cards, as auto sales remain weak

Tuesday, 5/8
March Wholesale Inventories                          +0.4%          +0.5%
Most industries still have excess inventories, but the inventory-to-sales ratios have stopped expanding
YoY inventory growth was 8.3% last month

Wednesday, 5/9
FOMC Meeting
Likely to maintain the “vigilant” tone and leave rates unchanged at 5.25%
Growth below trend, but inflation remains above target

Thursday, 5/10
March Trade Balance                                               -$60B        -58.4B
Rising oil prices will cause the trade deficit to begin widening again
Import and export volumes are both expected to rise
Nominal consumer imports have risen +15% YoY

April Import Price Index                           MoM +1.1%          +1.7%
Last month’s increase has only been exceeded four times in last 5 years
The dollar index has fallen twice as much as import prices have risen over the past year (-5.8% vs +2.8%)
Core consumer prices over the last year have gone from -0.3% YoY in March 2006 to +1.8% YoY last month, and is expected to rise to +2.1% YoY in April

April Monthly Budget Statement        $134.5B        $118.8B
Higher non-withheld tax receipts more than offset higher outlays to create a large monthly surplus
Year-to-date, the U.S. government still in deficit

Chicago Fed President Moskow and Fed Governor Kroszner speak at Chicago Fed Conference entitled “Competitive Forces Shaping the Payments Environment: What’s Next?”


Friday, 5/11
April Producer Price Index                   MoM +0.6%         +1%
                                                                                     YoY +3.1%         +3.2%
Core PPI (ex-food and energy)              MoM +.2%         unch
                                                                                     YoY +1.8%         +1.7%
PPI measures only domestically produced goods prices, not services prices
Higher food and gasoline prices keep inflation pressures elevated
YoY Core inflation accelerating as headline figure eases
Rising domestic car and truck production may indicate higher prices
Core intermediate PPI growth has remained moderate over last 6 months

April Advanced Retail Sales                            +0.4%         +0.7%
Less Autos                                                                 +0.4%         +0.8%
Retail sales expected to soften as higher energy prices depress consumers’ purchasing power
Thirty cent rise in gasoline prices accounts for majority of monthly sales gain
Auto sales were flat in April and will not impact retail sales
General merchandise and clothing expected to hold steady, while furniture and home improvement sales continue to weaken
Sales excluding autos and gas have recently been running below headline

March Business Inventories                          +0.2%         +0.3%
Business inventories have risen in each of the past 12 months
Manufacturing inventories rose +.2% MoM in March

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